The NextDC FY27 guidance cut is behind one of the sharpest two-day reversals the ASX has seen all year. NextDC shares crashed as much as 44% on October 21 — the biggest one-day drop in the company’s history since its 2010 listing — directly triggered by the NextDC FY27 guidance cut tied to a Melbourne power delay, before shares clawed back 7.5% the next day.
NextDC FY27 guidance cut: what triggered it
The NextDC FY27 guidance cut was driven by a power delay at the company’s Melbourne M3 data centre, where grid works being carried out by Jemena won’t resume before February 2027 — pushing the next real increase in power supply for the site out to 2028. Because M3’s capacity underpins a meaningful chunk of NextDC’s near-term AI and cloud customer contracts, the delay forced an immediate, material cut to full-year guidance.
Illustrative representation of the two-session move based on reported figures.
NextDC FY27 guidance cut: the numbers in full
| Metric | Previous Guidance (Aug 27) | Revised Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Underlying EBITDA | A$385M – A$410M | A$245M – A$265M |
| Net Revenue | A$615M – A$640M | A$475M – A$500M |
| Capex | — | A$4.5B – A$5B |
The roughly A$140 million gap in both net revenue and underlying EBITDA behind the NextDC FY27 guidance cut is directly attributed to the M3 contracts affected by the power delay. Management has also paused all new data centre development projects and land acquisitions that aren’t already backed by existing customer contracts — a clear signal of caution beyond just the M3 site itself.
Melbourne power delay confirmed
Jemena grid works won’t resume before February 2027; next real capacity increase pushed to 2028.
October 21: record one-day crash
NXT shares fall as much as 44% on the NextDC FY27 guidance cut news, its steepest drop since listing in 2010.
October 22: partial rebound
Shares recover 7.5% to close at A$5.75 as brokers argue the initial sell-off overshot.
NextDC share price: what brokers are saying now
RBC: Outperform, $22 Target
Argues the power and development approval delays are largely outside NextDC’s control, supporting a bullish long-term view despite the near-term hit.
Citi: More Cautious
Warns the earnings impact could extend beyond FY27, citing delays in expansion approvals and transformer upgrades as a longer-running risk.
Treating the 7.5% rebound as confirmation the issue is resolved. NextDC’s own balance sheet disclosure — A$8.675 billion in liquidity as of September 30 — suggests the company can comfortably manage the delay financially, but the underlying power infrastructure timeline (2028 for M3’s next real increase) hasn’t changed.
NextDC Melbourne power delay: the open question going forward
The central uncertainty isn’t really about NextDC’s financial capacity to absorb the NextDC FY27 guidance cut — its liquidity position answers that. It’s whether the M3 power delay is an isolated, site-specific infrastructure problem, or an early signal of a broader grid-capacity bottleneck that could affect other NextDC sites as AI-driven data centre demand continues to outpace available power supply across the sector.
Frequently Asked Questions
What caused the NextDC FY27 guidance cut?
A power delay at its Melbourne M3 data centre forced a major cut to FY27 earnings and revenue guidance.
How much did NextDC shares rebound after the guidance cut?
Shares rose 7.5% on October 22, closing at A$5.75, after the prior day’s record crash of up to 44%.
What is NextDC’s revised FY27 guidance?
Underlying EBITDA guidance was cut to A$245-265 million and net revenue to A$475-500 million, both down from prior forecasts.
When will NextDC’s Melbourne power delay be resolved?
Grid works are not expected to resume before February 2027, with the next real increase in power supply now expected in 2028.
Are brokers still positive on NextDC after the guidance cut?
Views are split — RBC maintains an outperform rating with a $22 target, while Citi warns the earnings impact could extend beyond FY27.
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