A possible RBA rate hike November 2026 went from unlikely to a genuine coin-flip almost overnight, after RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned on October 21 that the inflation outlook is “materially worse” than the Bank had forecast. Markets are now actively pricing in a real chance of a fifth hike this year.
RBA rate hike November 2026: how the odds jumped
Market-implied odds of a November RBA rate hike surged immediately after Hauser’s remarks, though exact estimates vary by source: one tracker put the probability at roughly 51%, up from 22% the day before, while another cited a jump from 30% to 45%, and The Adviser reported odds as high as 57%. Whichever figure you use, the direction is unambiguous — this went from a low-probability outcome to a genuine live possibility within a single trading session.
RBA Hauser inflation warning: what he actually said
Hauser specifically flagged surging oil and gas prices alongside rising AI-related electronics costs as upside risks to the inflation outlook — both genuinely current, verifiable pressures rather than abstract concerns. The focus data point now is the September-quarter CPI: economists suggest a trimmed-mean quarterly reading of 0.9% or higher would make it genuinely difficult for the RBA to leave the cash rate unchanged at the meeting.
RBA cash rate decision: the bank split
| Bank | November Call |
|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | Expects a 25bp hike |
| ANZ | Forecasting a hike |
| Westpac | Forecasting a hike |
| NAB | Expects a hold |
| CBA | Expects a hold |
A genuine 2-2 split among Australia’s biggest banks on the RBA cash rate decision is itself notable — this isn’t a consensus call either way, which is part of why the meeting is drawing unusually close attention for what might otherwise be a routine board decision.
Current Cash Rate
4.60%, following four increases already delivered during 2026.
If Hiked
Rate would rise to 4.85%, a fifth increase this year.
Meeting Date
Early November (sources cite Nov 2 or 3) — notably falling on Melbourne Cup Day.
Key Data
September-quarter trimmed-mean CPI is the figure markets are watching most closely.
AUD USD forecast: why the Aussie barely moved on hawkish news
Counterintuitively, a more hawkish RBA stance has not meaningfully lifted the Australian dollar, which was trading near 0.7015 against the US dollar in the hours after Hauser’s comments. The explanation ties back to a separate, parallel story: safe-haven demand for the US dollar, driven by escalating Middle East tensions following the oil price surge Saudi Arabia 2026 event, is offsetting the typical currency-strengthening effect of higher expected interest rates.
Assuming higher rate-hike odds automatically mean a stronger AUD. This is exactly the kind of situation where two genuine macro forces — hawkish RBA repricing and US-dollar safe-haven demand — are pulling in opposite directions at the same time, and the currency reaction often reflects whichever force is currently dominant, not just the headline rate story alone.
What the RBA rate hike November 2026 decision means for investors
For Australian investors, a confirmed hike would extend one of the more aggressive RBA tightening cycles in recent years, with direct implications for mortgage holders, borrowing-sensitive sectors, and bond-proxy equities that tend to react to rate expectations. The genuine bank-forecaster split means this is a real two-way risk event rather than a formality — worth watching the actual September-quarter CPI print closely rather than assuming either outcome is already priced in correctly.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will the RBA hike rates in November 2026?
It’s genuinely uncertain — estimates of the probability range from roughly 45% to 57% following Hauser’s inflation warning, with major banks split on the outcome.
What did RBA Deputy Governor Hauser say about inflation?
He warned the inflation outlook is “materially worse” than the RBA had forecast, citing surging oil and gas prices and AI-related electronics costs.
What would the RBA cash rate become if hiked?
It would rise from 4.60% to 4.85%, marking a fifth increase during 2026.
Why hasn’t the AUD strengthened on hawkish RBA news?
Safe-haven demand for the US dollar, driven by Middle East tensions, is offsetting the usual currency-boosting effect of higher rate expectations.
When is the RBA’s November 2026 meeting?
Sources cite either November 2 or 3, with the decision date notably falling on Melbourne Cup Day.
Want to track how RBA decisions move AUD and ASX?
We break down the data and deals that actually move markets — not just headlines.
Explore Our Learn Hub Ask Our Analysts